How the North can reject Tinubu and still re-elect him unintentionally

By Ike Abonyi

_An incumbent’s strength sometimes lies not in popularity, but in the disunity of the opposition. —Anonymous_

The geopolitical North, like every other region of Nigeria, is deeply dissatisfied and angry with President Bola Tinubu’s administration. It is equally clear that the region is preparing to subject President Tinubu to the same electoral treatment it gave President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.

However, political observers fear that two factors could prevent the North from repeating the events of 2015. First, Tinubu is not Jonathan. Second, the politically unified North of 2015 no longer exists. If Jonathan was unwilling to risk bloodshed in pursuit of his ambition, the same cannot be said of a Jagaban who regards the Presidency as his turn and is determined to seize it at all costs.

Nevertheless, politically discerning observers argue that rejecting Tinubu in the North would represent a significant political setback for him, but would not, on its own, constitute his defeat.

The 2023 figures help explain the how and why, even though much has changed since then. For example, Nasir El-Rufai, a key figure in the political events of 2015, 2019, and 2023, has been restrained and imprisoned, demonstrating to the North that it can be demonised.

In 2023, across the North’s three geopolitical zones, Tinubu secured approximately 5.59 million votes, Atiku about 5.23 million, and Obi roughly 2.08 million. Tinubu’s lead over Atiku in the North was therefore only about 354,000 votes.

The essential point is that the North does not vote as a single bloc. In 2023, Atiku prevailed in the North-East, Tinubu led in the North-West, and the North-Central was considerably more competitive, with Obi receiving more than 1.4 million votes there. This pattern is unlikely to recur because Tinubu’s electoral standing in the North today is now abysmal. The question is: who will benefit from Tinubu’s 2023 votes in 2027—Atiku or Obi? Because of the zoning issue plus having a formidable Rabiu Kwankwaso as his running mate, many are rooting for Obi to take the lion’s share of votes in the region in 2027. But if for any selfish reason the North rejects Tinubu in favour of Atiku because he is one of their own, it would be playing into Tinubu’s hands by reinforcing the zoning arrangement, which is not constitutional but remains binding. By fragmenting the zoning formula through support for Atiku, the North would be arming Tinubu with the means to fracture the country through his Emilokon agenda. If, however, the North decides to be just and let Tinubu know that the real emilokon is to the South East that has not been President since this dispensation that began in 1999, they will channel their vote to Obi, who incidentally is the best product in the market by all standards.

There are therefore two fundamentally different interpretations of “rejecting Tinubu”:

The North rejects Tinubu and unites overwhelmingly behind a single challenger: this could pose a serious threat to the incumbent.

North rejects Tinubu but disperses its votes among Atiku, Obi, and other candidates: Tinubu could lose considerable northern support without necessarily losing the presidency; this second possibility is especially important.

In 2023, Atiku and Obi together secured substantially more votes than Tinubu nationwide, but their support was split between separate candidacies. Tinubu nevertheless recorded the highest individual vote total. That outcome is unlikely to be repeated in 2027, given the paradox at the heart of the election, which can be stated as follows:

The North can defeat Tinubu only if its rejection of him produces a sufficiently concentrated alternative vote for Peter Obi, who is certain to receive substantial support from the South. Northern rejection alone does not amount to Tinubu’s defeat if those votes are not properly directed. This is why the destination of the anti-Tinubu vote may be as important as its overall size.

If a northern voter says, “I don’t want Tinubu,” and votes for Atiku, while a southern voter seeking change casts a ballot for Obi, the two votes may together signify rejection of the incumbent while remaining electorally divided.

That is the central lesson of 2023.

Current reporting also characterises opposition fragmentation as a significant issue ahead of 2027, while the APC is seeking to preserve its northern advantage amid economic and security concerns.

The point, therefore, is that northern opposition to Tinubu alone will not suffice; those votes must converge if he is to be defeated. Otherwise, the North may reject Tinubu yet still return him to office. This reflects the paradox without presuming that the 2027 result has already been determined.

And perhaps the most significant lesson of 2023 is that, in a fragmented presidential contest, voters may collectively reject an incumbent’s performance without collectively generating a single alternative strong enough to defeat him.

The central question, then, may not be, “Who does the North reject?” It may instead be:

“After rejecting Tinubu, where will the northern vote go—and what will happen to the votes elsewhere?”

If Atiku secures a very large share of the northern vote while Obi or another southern challenger wins substantial support in the South, the opposition could command enormous aggregate backing without any one challenger receiving enough of it to turn that support into victory.

That is essentially what the 2023 figures demonstrate.

However, it would be mistaken to assume that northern voters are automatically Atiku supporters, particularly given the strategic position of another formidable Northerner, Rabiu Kwankwaso.

The actual 2027 equation is not merely:

North rejects Tinubu = Tinubu loses. Rather, the more accurate formulation is: northern rejection + opposition consolidation + adequate national spread = a fundamentally different electoral equation.

In the absence of the second and third elements, widespread northern opposition to Tinubu could paradoxically occur alongside his continued position as the leading individual candidate.

That may be the most significant lesson of 2023. In a fragmented presidential contest, voters may collectively reject an incumbent’s performance without collectively producing a single alternative capable of defeating him.

Perhaps to prevent such an outcome, some individuals have been making determined efforts to create a unified opposition ticket by urging Atiku Abubakar, who is clearly disadvantaged by zoning considerations and age, to step aside in favour of a younger, more dynamic Peter Obi. However, he has refused to yield.

The central strategic lesson is that the 2027 election should not be viewed simply as a contest between the North and the South or as a choice between northern rejection and Tinubu’s victory. The decisive issue is whether voters dissatisfied with the incumbent will ultimately unite behind an alternative candidate strongly enough to convert that dissatisfaction into an electoral majority with the necessary geographical spread.

The central point is that Atiku’s entry into, or sustained strength in, the presidential contest presents opposition strategists with a dilemma on several fronts: if northern opposition votes are divided between Atiku and other regional figures such as Kwankwaso, while southern opposition votes gravitate toward figures such as Peter Obi or remain concentrated in local opposition strongholds, the broader anti-incumbent coalition fragments, enabling the ruling party to retain its pluralities.

The argument that votes cast for Atiku Abubakar in the North will ultimately assist Bola Tinubu rests on basic electoral arithmetic and the patterns of vote-splitting observed in previous elections.

Experience has demonstrated that, in Africa, when opposition leaders set aside personal ambitions to form broad pre-electoral alliances, they consistently undermine the traditional advantages associated with power and patronage. We saw it happen in Nigeria in 2015, in Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, etc. As the renowned political journalist Dorothy Thompson cautioned opposition politicians: “Do not reject an imperfect ally when you are working for a common aim in a time of great danger.” President Tinubu’s first term has put Nigeria in great danger, enough to make Nigeria’s opposition unite for a common purpose.

In conclusion, if the geopolitical North genuinely and decisively wishes to remove President Tinubu from Aso Rock, a desire shared overwhelmingly by Nigerians, it must not disregard the electoral arithmetic involved.

Obi Media to Nigerians: It’s 100 days to end our misery: do not sell or surrender your PVC

The Peter Obi Media Office has alleged that the All Progressive Congress (APC) is planning to buy off Permanent Voter’s Cards from the electorate as a strategy to preventing them from voting them out in the forth coming general elections.

In a statement on Thursday, the Office urged voters to resist the pressure to sell or surrender their PVCs for monetary gains.

According to the Office, the plan of the APC is to allegedly capitalize on the wide-spread poverty to offer money to voters to surrender their cards.

Said the statement: “The Peter Obi Media Office has become aware of the ruling party’s strategy of exploiting the poverty in the land—poverty they have created—by offering large sums of money to people in exchange for their PVCs.

“Exactly 100 days left to election day, we urge Nigerians to remain vigilant against anyone offering money or inducements in exchange for your vote, your PVC, or participation in any scheme aimed at compromising the electoral process.

“Reports from some states indicate that some state governors, who have nothing positive to show to persuade their citizens, including civil servants, are collecting their PVCs in exchange for the payment of their legitimate salaries and allowances,” it alleged.

Advising the voters, the Obi Media Office said: “Your PVC is not for sale. Your vote is not for sale. Your future is not for sale. Collect your PVC. Keep it secure. Do not hand it over to anyone. Reject bribes and report any suspected electoral manipulation to the proper authorities.

“On election day, turn out, vote according to your conscience, protect your ballot, and insist that your vote counts” urging them to also “defend your vote legally. Defend your democracy and create a new Nigeria that will be possible and OK.”

Abducted 20 NYSC members regain freedom in Imo

The 20 prospective National Youth Service Corps members kidnapped while travelling from Oyo State to orientation camps in Abia State have regained their freedom.

They regained their freedom seven days after they were abducted along the Owerri-Onitsha Road in Umunoha, Imo State.
The rescued victims are undergoing treatment at the Department of State Services Hospital in Owerri, Imo State.

The Director-General of the National Youth Service Corps, Brigadier-General Olakunle Oluseye Nafiu, visited the facility to meet the victims and assess their condition.

He was accompanied by the Imo State Commissioner of Police, the Director of the Department of State Services and the Commander of the 34 Artillery Brigade, Imo State.

Nafiu also addressed the rescued victims during the visit.

Also, the Managing Director of Uko Akwa Ibom Motors Nigeria Limited, Isiah Akpan, had confirmed this to The PUNCH on Wednesday.

Authorities have yet to provide details on the circumstances surrounding the rescue, including whether any of the suspects were arrested or a ransom was paid.

The PUNCH reports that the 20 graduates were travelling from Ibadan to their NYSC orientation camps on Thursday when gunmen attacked the two buses conveying them.

The abductors demanded N50 million for each victim, amounting to N1 billion.

They later reduced the ransom to N5 million per person, totalling N100 million.

Following the incident, security agencies commenced a search operation aimed at locating the victims and rescuing them from their abductors.

The state police command subsequently announced that its operatives had traced the kidnappers’ hideout using drone surveillance.

However, the security team reportedly could not immediately access the camp after discovering that the area had been planted with improvised explosive devices.

The security agencies later brought in additional equipment, including bulldozers and armoured personnel carriers, to facilitate access to the location.

The abduction had heightened concerns among the victims’ relatives, particularly after reports emerged that the kidnappers were demanding N50m for each captive.

The police had earlier confirmed that 10 of the abducted persons had been rescued, while the search for the others continued.

With the latest rescue, all 20 prospective corps members and the additional victim have regained their freedom and are currently receiving medical care in Owerri.

Meanwhile, Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, commended the security agencies for their efforts in securing the victims’ release.

The governor “praised the personnel for what he described as their cooperation and patriotism in ensuring that the corps members were brought out safely.”

In a statement he personally signed, Uzodimma also acknowledged the joint efforts of the Oyo and Imo State governments towards securing the release of the remaining captives, according to Channels TV.

He said the sensitive nature of the operation, which involved the safety of the victims, informed the decision by the government to keep details of the efforts away from the public while the operation was ongoing.

Uzodimma expressed gratitude to the security agencies for the discreet and coordinated manner in which they handled the operation.

He also praised the victims’ parents for remaining patient throughout the ordeal and urged Nigerians to maintain confidence in the Federal Government’s efforts to address insecurity.

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Tinubu mourns NADECO chieftain, Ralph Obioha

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has expressed condolences over the death of former lawmaker, businessman and prominent figure in Nigeria’s pro-democracy struggle, Chief Ralph Obioha, aged 80.

In a statement issued on Wednesday by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the President described Obioha as a respected statesman who belonged to a generation of Nigerians who responded to the call of duty during some of the country’s most difficult periods.

Tinubu extended his condolences to Obioha’s family, community, the people of Abia State, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, members of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) and other Nigerians mourning the deceased.

The President noted that Obioha, as a founding member and prominent leader of NADECO, stood firmly for democratic governance during the struggle to restore democracy following the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election.

He said Obioha’s commitment to the pro-democracy movement came at considerable personal cost but that he remained steadfast in his belief in democracy, justice, constitutionalism and the right of Nigerians to choose their leaders.

“While the passage of time may dim memories, the contributions of patriots who stood firm during difficult chapters of our national history must never be forgotten,” Tinubu said.

“Chief Ralph Obioha was a courageous Nigerian who made sacrifices for democracy and remained committed to the ideals of a better Nigeria.

“His generation faced extraordinary challenges, and he played his part in defending the principles he believed would strengthen our democracy and our nation.”

Tinubu said Obioha’s death was a loss to his family, community and the nation, adding that he would be remembered for his courage, convictions, service and belief in Nigeria.

“On behalf of the Federal Government and the people of Nigeria, I extend my deepest condolences to his family and loved ones. I pray that Almighty God grants them comfort and gives eternal rest to the soul of Chief Ralph Obioha,” he said.

The President added: “May the memory of Chief Ralph Obioha endure as a reminder that the building of a nation requires courage, sacrifice, conviction and faith.” Authority.

Air Force crash: Late Pilot wedded only two weeks ago

It has been shockingly revealed that the air crash which occurred on Monday in Igbokoda community Ondo State and claimed lives of 25 occupants of the Nigerian Air Force ATR-42 aircraft, NAF 931, also include a pilot, Ahamefule Aham Man-Ugwueje said to have just wedded two weeks ago.

Ugwueje, a Squadron Leader was one of the pilots, who tied the knot with Flight Lieutenant Damilola Adekunle on September 19, 2026, in an elaborate ceremony held in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory.

Details of the wedding invitation and posts on Facebook by vendors involved in the ceremony showed Man-Ugwueje’s hometown as Umuahia, Abia State, while Abuja is listed as his current town/city.

The post on the pages of the wedding planner and vendors involved in the ceremony showed videos and photographs from Man-Ugwueje and Adekunle’s wedding in Abuja while the videographers at the wedding, Beejay Creates, shared footage from the ceremony with the caption, “Love in every word.”

Wedding invitation showed that the couple’s Holy Matrimony was held at the Redeemed Christian Church of God, The Masters Place, Plot 826, Solomon Lar Way, opposite the NHIS Headquarters/Customary Court of Appeal, Utako, Abuja.

The late pilot was listed by the Nigerian Air Force among the five crew members who died in the crash, and identified him as the co-pilot of the aircraft, explaining that the aircraft was on a routine mission from Benin to Lagos when the accident occurred.

Nigerian Air Force on Tuesday confirmed that all 25 people on board died in the accident and released their names.

The Chief of the Air Staff, Air Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke, described the crash as a deeply painful moment for the Nigerian Air Force and the nation and expressed condolences to the families, loved ones and colleagues of the victims,

He also disclosed that a comprehensive investigation had been ordered to establish the circumstances surrounding the accident.

Atiku mourns 25 victims of Nigerian Air Force plane crash

Former Vice President of Nigeria and Presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, Atiku Abubakar has expressed profound grief over the tragic Nigerian Air Force aircraft crash in Ondo State that claimed the lives of 25 Nigerians.

The aircraft, carrying 25 passengers and crew members, crashed near Igbokoda in Ondo State. Among the victims were airmen, soldiers and members of their families, reportedly including children who were returning to school.

Atiku described the tragedy as a painful national loss, noting that its circumstances make it particularly heartbreaking.

“The loss of our servicemen and women is deeply painful. But the knowledge that their family members, including young children returning to school, were also among those whose lives were cut short makes this tragedy even more devastating.

“These were men and women serving our country, alongside loved ones whose hopes, dreams and futures have been extinguished in one tragic moment.

“My thoughts and prayers are with every family that has lost a loved one. I extend my deepest condolences to the Nigerian Air Force, the Armed Forces of Nigeria, the government and people of Ondo State, and indeed the entire nation.

“I pray that Almighty God grants eternal rest to the departed, comforts their grieving families and gives our nation the strength to bear this painful loss,” Atiku said.

The former Vice President also expressed the hope that the investigation into the crash would establish its cause and help strengthen aviation safety within the Armed Forces to prevent a recurrence.

Ondo crash: ADC questions Military budget funding, commiserates with victims’ families

African Democratic Congress (ADC) has raised worries over funding for the maintenance of Nigerian Air Force aircraft fleet following Monday’s fatal ATR-42 crash in Igbokoda, Ondo State.

The Party asked why the Presidential Air Fleet received substantially higher maintenance funding than the aircraft operated by the Air Force.

It also expressed sadness over the death of 20 passenger and five crew members that lost their lives in military air crash on Monday in Ondo State.

ADC said available budget implementation figures showed that only about 13.98 per cent of the N34.71 billion allocated for Nigerian Air Force aircraft maintenance had been released by December 2025, compared with 97.76 per cent implementation of the N20.74 billion allocated for maintenance of the Presidential Air Fleet.

The ADC said the disparity required scrutiny, particularly following the crash of the Nigerian Air Force ATR-42 aircraft in Igbokoda. The Nigerian Air Force said the aircraft was on a routine mission from Benin to Lagos when it crashed.

In a statement issued in Abuja on Tuesday, ADC National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, expressed condolences to the families of the victims but said the tragedy should also prompt a broader examination of defence funding and aircraft maintenance.

“While we do not intend to prejudice ongoing investigations into the cause of this tragic crash, we believe that this sad moment also provides an opportunity to raise, yet again, questions about the non-implementation of the defence budget and the perennial neglect of military equipment,” the party said.

The Federal Government had released N4.5 billion, representing about 13.98 per cent of the N34.71 billion budgeted for maintenance of Nigerian Air Force aircrafts as of December 2025, ADC claimed lamenting that the figures contrasted this with the N20.74 billion budgeted for maintenance of the Presidential Air Fleet, of which N20.27 billion, or 97.76 per cent, had reportedly been released.

“Put simply, while the fleet that serves a handful of people in power got almost every kobo it asked for, the fleet that serves and protects 200 million Nigerians was left with crumbs.

“The safety of the President matters. But what also matters is the safety of the pilots and airmen who put their lives on the line in defence of the country. Patriotism does not replace spare parts, and condolence messages do not take the place of accountability,” it said.

Air Force plane crash: No survivors yet, only wreckage, IDs – Gov Aiyedatiwa

Ondo State Governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa has said no survivor has been recovered in the military aircraft crash in Igbokoda, Ilaje Local Government Area of the state.

He said rescue teams had so far recovered parts of the aircraft, identity cards and military uniforms but had yet to reach the main body of the aircraft, which reportedly plunged deep into a swamp.

He disclosed this on Monday night during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today adding that the surveillance aircraft had 32 people on board — 25 passengers and seven crew members — and was travelling from Benin to Lagos when it lost radio communication at about 9.15am.

Atiku taunts Tinubu over Teachers’ Day, questions his educational records

Presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, Atiku Abubakar, has criticised President Bola Tinubu over his inability to identify former teachers and classmates, as Nigeria marked this year’s World Teachers’ Day.

The Former Vice President also decried the rising cost of living, saying teachers across the country were struggling to provide for their families despite continuing to perform their duties.

He spoke in a statement issued on Monday by the Director of Strategic Communication of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, Phrank Shaibu.

Atiku said: “Of course, I appreciate Nigerian teachers. I am a product of their work and the education I received in their classrooms. I still remember the names and faces of my early teachers in Jada, who saw potential in a young orphan when few others did.”

He then turned his attention to Tinubu’s educational background, questioning the President’s ability to recall details about his school years.

“It is both revealing and deeply embarrassing that Bola Tinubu cannot name a single teacher who stood before him or a classmate who sat beside him,” he said.
He criticised the government over the economic difficulties confronting teachers saying that teachers were battling rising costs of food, transportation, rent and electricity, while their earnings had failed to keep pace with the increase in living expenses.

“Government cannot praise teachers on this day and leave them to face hardship for the rest of the year. A commemorative message cannot pay a teacher’s bills. Respect must be reflected in fair conditions, reliable support and policies that make life affordable,” Atiku said.

2027: Elections’ll be driven by transparency, technology -INEC Chairman

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has assured Nigerians that it is intensifying preparations for the 2027 general elections, with emphasis on transparency, technology, public trust and collaboration with the media and civil society.

INEC Chairman, Prof. Joash O. Amupitan, SAN, gave the assurance on Monday in Abuja at a strategic workshop organised by the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE) in collaboration with INEC.

The workshop, themed “Strengthening Democracy Through Partnership Among Editors, Civil Society and Electoral Institutions,” comes 101 days before the January 16, 2027 presidential and National Assembly elections and 124 days before the February 6 governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections.

Amupitan said the timing of the engagement was deliberate, stressing that credible elections could not be achieved by INEC alone.

“The ultimate arbiter of electoral integrity is public trust,” he said, adding that such trust required “an active, transparent, and unshakeable partnership between the electoral umpire, civil society, and the free press.”

The chairman said INEC had completed eight of the 14 major activities contained in its revised timetable for the 2027 elections and was advancing towards the ninth milestone.

He announced that nationwide collection of Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs) would commence on Friday, October 9, 2026, urging the media to educate voters on collection locations.

According to him, the three phases of the Continuous Voter Registration exercise produced 10,772,421 new registrations, while the National Register of Voters now contains more than 103 million voters following the completion of the Automated Biometric Identification System cleanup.

Amupitan said the Commission had also introduced online voter registration and printable PVC technology to reduce barriers associated with registration and collection of voter cards.

On technology, the INEC chairman disclosed that 57,000 new Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices had been acquired, while existing devices had undergone software hardening, battery optimisation and biometric calibration.

He said the enhanced eEC8A system would enable polling-unit results to be digitised, authenticated and uploaded to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV).

He added that INEC was integrating artificial intelligence tools for anomaly detection and cybersecurity.

“We are committed to ensuring that every valid vote counts and is seen to count,” Amupitan said.

He also warned political parties and candidates against vote-buying, saying INEC was working with the Federal Ministry of Justice, EFCC, ICPC and NFIU to monitor illegal campaign spending.

“Elections must be decided by the conviction of the voter, not the depth of a candidate’s pocket,” he declared.

The chairman further warned against political violence, intimidation and hate speech, saying the Commission would work through the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) to track incidents and dangerous campaign rhetoric.

On the media, Amupitan urged editors to strengthen fact-checking and verification, particularly in the face of deepfakes, manipulated videos and coordinated disinformation.

“When information is verified before publication, you perform a sacred public service,” he told editors.

Earlier, NGE President, Mr Eze Anaba, said the workshop was critical to strengthening the relationship between the electoral body and the media.

“Elections are not merely about casting ballots; they are about trust,” Anaba said.

He expressed concern about the growing reliance on the courts to resolve electoral disputes, saying: “Hopefully, with this next round of elections, citizens’ votes will speak.”

Anaba said credible elections were a shared responsibility involving INEC, political parties, the media and citizens, adding that “the credibility of the media itself is an essential component of the credibility of the electoral process.”

Also speaking, Executive Director of the Centre for Media and Society, Dr Akin Akingbolu, warned that fabricated newspaper front pages, fake campaign materials and manipulated videos posed serious threats to the 2027 elections.

He said public trust in the media remained an important resource, describing it as “a form of electoral infrastructure” that must be protected.

Akingbolu urged news organisations to establish verification leads within election desks and ensure that election results were traced to lawful declarations.

His message to journalists was simply “verify before you amplify.”

He also called on INEC to improve the speed and clarity of its communication with newsrooms, warning that “when official information moves at the speed of rumour, unofficial information inevitably fills the vacuum.”

Akingbolu proposed an **INEC-Editors Verification Compact** to establish clear commitments on information authentication, communication of discrepancies and responses to false information.

INEC National Commissioner, Mohammed Haruna, said the Commission had conducted several elections since Amupitan assumed office, including the Anambra, FCT, Ekiti and Osun elections, as well as several legislative bye-elections.

Haruna said the elections had progressively improved, while acknowledging the contribution of stakeholders, particularly the media.

He said the workshop was aimed at ensuring that stakeholders worked together to deliver credible elections in 2027.

Haruna also announced that INEC would hold a press conference on Tuesday, October 6, marking 100 days to the first phase of the general elections, where the chairman would brief local and international media on the Commission’s state of readiness. Authority.